Nba Point Spread Formula

Posted : admin On 4/10/2022

How to read NBA Las Vegas Odds. The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to attract bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as. In a point spread, you have to bet against the forecasted outcome one way or the other, you cannot just pick a team to win lose or it without laying down a lot of money or it would be too easy to beat a highly likely winner. Instead if a team is predicted to win by 7 points, the spread would be -7 towards that team.

A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright. Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines. What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable.



Point Spread: Commonly called the line or spread, it is the number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that they feel will get an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.

Using math to help predictthe outcome of a sporting event is something that has been done for years.That's what statistical handicapping is all about.
In recent years, there has been atendency to use the Pythagorean Formula to determine how many games a teamshould have won in any years based on its scoring, both for and against. It isfrequently used for baseball and the general premise is that 'Expectedwins = runs scored(2)/runs scored(2)+ runs allowed(2).'
Later, theexponent was changed from 2.0 to 1.83. The theory behind the method is thatteams who won fewer or more games than expected could be good wagers to see a reversal the followingyear.

The method has been altered fornearly all sports, which use the same premise, but use different numbers. Manytimes the method is referred to as the Pythagorean Expectation.
Nba point spread formula 2019PythagoreanFormula in the NBA
For each team playing, you wouldneed its spread results for each of those three categories and you would thentotal them up.
Using a game between Philadelphiaand Boston at Boston for an example, let's assume the 76ers are 7-9 against thespread on the road; 4-4 on the road against .500 or better opponents; and 5-4on the road against divisional opponents. When you total the 76ers' spreadrecord:
On the road: 7-9
On road vs. 500+: 4-4
On road vs. division: 5-4
You will get 16-17.
For Boston, we'll use the following:
At home: 10-6
At home vs. 500-: 6-5
At home vs. division: 6-4
When you total Boston's spread records you will get 22-15

Sheet
The first step is to take the roadteam's spread wins (in this case 16) and add them to the home team's losses,which is 15, to get a total of 31. Next, take the home team's spread wins (22)and add them to the road team's losses, which total 17, to get a total of 39.

The next step is to square bothnumbers, hence the Pythagorean Formula name, and 31*31=961 and 39*39=1521.

Nba Point Spread Formula Chart

Because thehome team is classified as A-squared, we will calculate the home's teamspercentage of covering the spread. The Pythagorean Formula has you divideA-squared by A-squared + B-squared, so our formula for this game will read'1521/1521+961 or 1521/2482=.613 or 61.3%, meaning Boston has a 61.3%chance of covering the point spread.

Patterson and Painter said to lookfor favorites with a greater than 70% chance of covering the spread orunderdogs with a greater than 58% chance of covering.

The formula is the same for collegebasketball in that you divide A-squared by A-squared + B-squared, but thedifference is the categories used. For the NCAA, I would use: home and away;favorite or underdog; and conference or non-conference.

Using the Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013,game between Washington and UCLA in Los Angeles, lets assign the following forWashington:
Away: 6-3
Underdog: 6-3
Conference: 7-2
When you total Washington's record you get 19-8.

Nba Point Spread Formula 2019

Nba point spread formula chart
For UCLA, we'll assign thefollowing:
Home: 6-7
Favorite: 6-13
Conference: 4-5
When you total UCLA's record you get 16-25.
Adding Washington's wins to UCLA'slosses gives a total of 44 and adding UCLA's wins to Washington's losses givesa total of 24.
Nba

Nba Point Spreads Today

When both numbers are squared, weget 44*44=1936 and 24*24=576. Now the formula will read 576/576+1936 or576/2512=.229, meaning UCLA has a 22.9% chance of covering the spread, so theplay would be on Washington. UCLA won 59-57 as 7.5-point favorites.

Nba Point Spread Formula Sheet

Like manyother articles, this is one of those that I am throwing out there for you toexamine and play around with. I wouldn't blindly wager on its games, but dosome tinkering and see if it still holds any value.

Nba Spreads Today

There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.

Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.

Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.

It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.

NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread

FavoriteMLWinning %UnderdogMLWinning %
-1-11551.10%1-10448.90%
-1.5-12152.30%1.5-10047.70%
-2-13254.30%2+10945.70%
-2.5-14356.30%2.5+11843.70%
-3-15658.20%3+12941.80%
-3.5-17060.10%3.5+14039.90%
-4-18461.90%4+15038.10%
-4.5-19963.60%4.5+16236.40%
-5-22265.80%5+17934.20%
-5.5-24768.00%5.5+19832.00%
-6-27670.10%6+21929.90%
-6.5-30972.10%6.5+24327.90%
-7-34974.20%7+27025.80%
-7.5-39776.30%7.5+30223.70%
-8-45878.40%8+34121.60%
-8.5-53680.50%8.5+38819.50%
-9-65682.80%9+45617.20%
-9.5-83285.20%9.5+54514.80%
-10-106987.30%10+65112.70%

If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.

Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball

FavoriteWinning %UnderdogWinning %
-145.40%152.00%
-1.548.10%1.551.90%
-249.50%246.70%
-2.546.90%2.553.10%
-348.50%347.20%
-3.546.50%3.553.50%
-452.80%445.30%
-4.550.40%4.549.60%
-546.00%549.50%
-5.551.30%5.548.70%
-650.60%645.80%
-6.550.80%6.549.20%
-747.20%748.10%
-7.552.30%7.547.70%
-853.10%843.80%
-8.550.80%8.549.20%
-950.20%946.40%
-9.551.40%9.548.60%
-1044.70%1052.80%
Nba spreads today

It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.

In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.

Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.

Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.